Zepto — The ₹48,000 Cr Question | UnlistedZone Research

01 — The Model

A 10-minute grocery store you don't see.

Zepto runs a vertically-integrated inventory-led model. It buys stock, holds it in 2,500 sq-ft "dark stores" placed inside 2-3 km radius of demand clusters, and delivers in under 10 minutes through gig riders. No customer ever walks in. Every step earns money differently.

Sourcing

Direct from brands & distributors. ~5,000 SKUs per store. Bulk pricing power as scale grows past ₹22,624 Cr.

Dark Stores

1,139 stores across 70+ cities. Highest density in India — 21 stores/city vs peers' 9. Inventory turns ~15 days.

App + AI

4.8 Cr annual transacting users. AI routing, demand forecasting, dynamic pricing. Zepto Atom monetises brand data.

Gig Delivery

Sub-10-min delivery via gig riders. Last-mile cost is the single largest variable expense in the P&L.

Monetisation

Product margin + ad income from brands + delivery/platform fee from users + Zepto Pass subscription.

₹353

Avg Revenue / Order

→

~₹293

Cost of Goods

→

~₹46

Delivery + Ops

→

~₹106

Marketing + Tech + Other Exp.

→

-₹79

EBITDA Loss / Order

02 — The Numbers

Revenue is 5x in two years. Losses are 4.7x.

The "growth at all costs" playbook. Top-line is compounding at 100%+. Burn is compounding too. The bull case rests on operating leverage kicking in before the cash runs out.

Revenue Trajectory

₹ Crore / FY24–FY26

2-Yr CAGR 126%

Net Loss

₹ Crore / Wider every year

Cumulative 3-Yr Loss ₹11,853 Cr

Orders

Crore orders / FY24–FY26

Orders / Day, FY26 17.6 Lakh

Revenue per Order

₹ per order · falling AOV

Direction ▼ Falling

Net Loss per Order

PAT loss ÷ orders / ₹

Peaked in FY25, now improving ▼ ₹65 lower

Transacting Users

Annual unique / Crore

3-Yr User Growth 4.8x

03 — Revenue Mix

Where the ₹22,624 Cr comes from.

Unlike Eternal (which reports take-rate revenue), Zepto books the full sale value of goods as revenue because it owns the inventory. The big unlock is the 33x growth in advertising revenue over 2 years — high margin, structural, and pure operating leverage.

FY26 Revenue Composition (PER UDRHP NOTE 18.1)

Sale of Traded Goods

77.8%

₹17,588 Cr

Warehousing + Last Mile

12.3%

₹2,780 Cr

Advertisement Revenue

7.2%

₹1,636 Cr

Platform Services

2.5%

₹564 Cr

Subscription + Franchisee

0.2%

₹43 Cr

Ad revenue is the hero metric. Ads, fees & subscriptions carry real margin. Sale of Goods is a pass-through with thin gross profit. Zepto's path to break-even depends on ads & services scaling faster than burn — and they are: ads alone went 33x in 2 years.

Advertisement Revenue Trajectory

₹ Crore · The compounding story

2-Year Growth 33x

On contribution margin: Zepto's UDRHP discloses an Adjusted EBITDA loss of ~₹5,041 Cr in FY26 (vs net loss ₹5,905 Cr) but does not break out contribution margin to the same granularity as Eternal (Blinkit at +5.04%) or Swiggy (Instamart at –2.79%). Backing out Zepto's fixed overheads from EBITDA suggests CM is in the low single-digit negative range — directionally improving vs FY25 but still meaningfully below Blinkit.

04 — What's the Price?

At ₹40, you're buying Zepto at ~$5.7 Bn.

Total shares outstanding at DRHP filing: ~1,200 Cr shares (face value ₹5). Current grey-market & unlisted desks are trading at ₹35–45. Here's what each price implies.

Scenario A · Discount

₹35

₹42,000 Cr

≈ $5.0 Bn

EV / NOV (FY26)1.69x

EV / Reported Rev1.86x

vs Last Round (₹52.41/sh)–33%

Scenario B · Middle

₹40

₹48,000 Cr

≈ $5.7 Bn

EV / NOV (FY26)1.93x

EV / Reported Rev2.12x

vs Last Round (₹52.41/sh)–24%

Scenario C · Premium

₹45

₹54,000 Cr

≈ $6.4 Bn

EV / NOV (FY26)2.18x

EV / Reported Rev2.39x

vs Last Round (₹52.41/sh)–14%

How we got to ₹52.41/share: Zepto's last private raise in Oct & Nov 2025 was via Compulsorily Convertible Preference Shares (CCPS) issued at ₹37.74 per CCPS. Each CCPS converts to 0.72 equity shares. So the effective per-equity-share price = ₹37.74 ÷ 0.72 = ₹52.41. On ~1,200 Cr fully-diluted shares, that implies a last-round market cap of ~₹62,900 Cr (~$7.5 Bn). Unlisted prices today therefore sit at a meaningful discount to where marquee VCs bought in just 7 months ago.

EV / NOV — Apples-to-Apples

FY26 trailing · EV ÷ consumer transaction volume

Zepto trades cheaper than Eternal, richer than Swiggy on transaction volume The middle path.

Why NOV and not reported revenue? Zepto books the full sale value of goods (1P inventory model) so its ₹22,624 Cr "revenue" already equals most of its NOV. Eternal & Swiggy book only take-rate revenue (commissions + ads + fees) — a much smaller number on the same underlying transaction volume. To compare like-with-like, we use EV ÷ total consumer NOV/GOV: Zepto ₹48,000 Cr ÷ ₹24,815 Cr = 1.93x. Eternal ₹2,42,000 Cr ÷ ~₹92,500 Cr (Food + Blinkit + District) = 2.62x. Swiggy ₹65,000 Cr ÷ ₹67,733 Cr (B2C GOV) = 0.96x.

05 — The Big Three

Zepto vs Blinkit vs Instamart.

Full year FY26 annual comparison. Note: Eternal reports take-rate revenue (commissions + ad + fees), Zepto reports full sale value (1P inventory model). NOV is the cleanest apples-to-apples metric.

Metric (FY26 Annual)	ZEPTO Unlisted	BLINKIT Eternal Ltd	INSTAMART Swiggy Ltd
Net Order Value (NOV) FY26 full year · ₹ Cr	₹24,815	₹48,000	₹28,000
Reported Revenue FY26 · ₹ Cr	₹22,624	₹12,706	₹4,039
Adj. EBITDA FY26 full year · ₹ Cr	–₹5,041	–₹277	–₹3,511
Contribution Margin % of NOV · FY26	Not disclosed*	+5.04%	–2.79%
Dark Stores As of Mar-26	1,139	2,243	1,143
Total Orders FY26 Crore	64	90	40
Orders / Day FY26 daily avg	17.6 Lakh	24 Lakh	11 Lakh
Avg Order Value NOV ÷ orders · ₹	₹388	₹533	₹688
Burn / Order (FY26) Adj. EBITDA ÷ orders · ₹	–₹78.8	–₹3.04	–₹87
QC Market Share By NOV · FY26	~25%	~48%	~27%

← Swipe to see all columns →

Zepto: NRV reported per UDRHP (includes ad revenue). Adj. EBITDA per UDRHP = –₹5,041 Cr; reported PAT loss = –₹5,905 Cr. Contribution margin not separately disclosed by Zepto. Burn/order = Adj. EBITDA ÷ total orders for all three to keep comparable. AOV = NOV ÷ orders.

FY26 Net Order Value — the cleanest scoreboard.

Annual NOV · FY26

₹ Crore · full year

Blinkit's lead 1.9x Zepto · 1.7x Instamart

06 — The Market

A ₹1 Lakh Crore market that didn't exist 4 years ago.

Indian retail is ₹90 lakh crore (FY25). Grocery alone is ~₹50 lakh crore of that, where kirana stores still hold 92% share. Online grocery is <1% of grocery spend. Quick commerce is a thin slice of a thin slice — but it's compounding faster than any retail format in Indian history.

₹90L Cr

Total Indian retail (FY25). Of which grocery ≈ ₹50L Cr. Kirana = 92% of grocery. Online grocery <1%.

₹1.06L Cr

QC market FY26. Computed from Big 3 NOV (₹1,00,815 Cr) + ~5% from Flipkart Minutes, BB Now, Amazon Now, JioMart.

~10%

QC share of India's e-retail spend. Two-thirds of e-grocery orders are now quick commerce. Projected $35 Bn by 2030.

Zepto's category mix.

Non-grocery (electronics, apparel, beauty, general merchandise) is the high-margin growth lever.

82%

Grocery & FMCG

18%

Non-Grocery

Non-grocery includes electronics, mobiles, apparel & general merchandise. Industry-wide, non-grocery is 15–20% of QC GMV and growing fastest.

Quick commerce market share, FY26.

Computed bottom-up from FY26 NOV: Blinkit ₹48,000 Cr + Instamart ₹28,000 Cr + Zepto ₹24,815 Cr = ₹1,00,815 Cr. Total market with smaller players ≈ ₹1.06 Lakh Cr.

BLINKIT 45%

INSTAMART 26%

ZEPTO 23%

Blinkit — Eternal Ltd (Listed) Instamart — Swiggy Ltd (Listed) Zepto — Unlisted, IPO 2026 Others — BB Now, Flipkart Minutes, Amazon Now, JioMart

07 — Should You Buy?

The case for. The case against.

At ₹40 unlisted, you're paying ₹48,000 Cr (~$5.7 Bn) for the only pure-play QC ticker that will exist in India. Here's both sides.

▲ BULL

01Only pure-play. Blinkit is buried inside Eternal, Instamart inside Swiggy. Zepto is the only ticker that gives 100% QC exposure.
02Density beats count. 21 stores/city (vs peers' 9). The model is built for utilisation, not coverage.
03Revenue 5x in 2 years. ₹4,454 Cr → ₹22,624 Cr. Orders compounding 100%+. Ad revenue 33x in 2 years — pure margin.
04Discount to last round. At ₹40, valuation is 24% below the Oct/Nov-25 CCPS round (effective ₹52.41/share, ~$7.5 Bn implied).
05Category headroom. QC is <1% of grocery. Non-grocery mix at 18% is high-margin runway.

▼ BEAR

01₹79 EBITDA loss per order. Burn per order is the highest among the big three (Blinkit –₹3, Instamart –₹87). Cumulative 3-yr net loss: ₹11,853 Cr.
02Blinkit is near break-even. Eternal posted only –₹277 Cr EBITDA loss in FY26 with 2x Zepto's stores. Zepto burnt 18x more on similar order volumes.
03Competitive war. 7 well-funded players (Amazon Now, Flipkart Minutes, JioMart, BB Now…) — pricing power is fiction.
046-month lock-in. Pre-IPO buyers can't exit for 6 months after listing. IPO pricing risk is real.
05Cash burn vs IPO size. ₹8,010 Cr fresh issue ≈ 16 months of current burn rate. Dilution risk in 24-36 months.

The UnlistedZone Take

At ₹35–40, the math is defensible — you're getting a structural QC bet at a 24–33% discount to the Oct/Nov-25 CCPS round (effective ₹52.41/equity share), and at an EV/Sales discount to Eternal. At ₹45+, you're paying only ~14% below what marquee VCs paid 7 months ago, on a business that lost ₹5,905 Cr last year. The IPO will likely price between ₹38–48 based on banker chatter. Pre-IPO investors should size accordingly — this is a 3-5 year story, not a 6-month flip. Lock-in is 6 months post-listing. Position-size with that in mind.