Why expensive oil hurts India more than most
India imports more than 85% of the crude oil it uses, and its demand keeps growing every year with more vehicles, flights and factories. So when oil moves from the mid-$80s to above $100 a barrel, the effect travels through the whole economy:
Usually hurt by high crude
Oil marketing companies, airlines, paints, tyres, chemicals and logistics, all of which use oil or its by-products as a key input.
Usually hold up better
Oil producers and upstream companies, and exporters such as IT and pharma that earn in dollars and gain when the rupee weakens.
The tariff threat from Washington
On 18 September the US President signed the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The law allows the US to impose tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, a list that puts India directly in the line of fire.
In simple terms, a 100% tariff would double the price of Indian goods in the US market, which would hit exporters of textiles, gems and jewellery, engineering goods and auto components. But the law gives the President wide discretion over which countries are targeted, at what rate, and whether to grant waivers. It takes effect within 30 days, during which US trade officials will recommend targets and rates.
That is why markets are nervous but not panicking. What they are pricing today is uncertainty, not a confirmed 100% duty. A negotiated outcome, for example a lower tariff in exchange for India reducing Russian oil purchases, remains possible.
Our view
Much of this is event risk. The US goes to the polls for its mid-term elections on 3 November, and trade rhetoric tends to be loudest in the run-up to an election. Once the elections are behind us, we expect the tone to cool, crude to find a more stable range, and Indian markets to recover.
For unlisted investors, a softer listed market is not all bad news. Unlisted prices often take their cue from listed peers, so market corrections can throw up better entry valuations in quality pre-IPO companies.
Index levels are closing values on 1 September and 18 September 2026 (last trading session before 20 September).